Are Ahmadinejad's Days Numbered?

Earlier this week,we saw an interesting development in Iran's political scene which could shape the course of the upcoming presidential election which is schedule to be held next year.Ali Larijani,a former top nuclear negotiator for Iran and a high-profile arch-rival of the President,has accepted his election as speaker on Wednesday.It wasn't a good news for Ahmadinejad,after his party lost 70% of the seats in the 290-seat parliament,known as the Majlis to the conservatives.

Larijani recently addressed global themes in his address to the opening session of the Majlis,dressing down the International Atomic Energy Agency and praising Hizballah which surprisingly,received a congratulatory call from European Union Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana.While Iran's insistence on its right to enrich uranium unites all major factions in the country,Larijani represents a more pragmatic approach to handling the issue,aimed at finding agreement with the West and avoiding confrontation.Larijani's stunning return to center stage in Iranian politics makes two things clear: President Ahmadinejad's hold on power is slipping badly,and next year's Iranian presidential election race is now wide open.Ahmadinejad's defeat in the Majlis is the latest sign of the ferment within Iran's ruling conservative coalition,which dominates the legislature.Larijani engineered two impressive political victories,first to win a seat in the 290-member assembly,and then to oust a sitting speaker.

Prominent politicians and clerical figures have begun distancing themselves from Ahmadinejad and rallying around Larijani.While he still enjoys solid popular support,many Iranians bitterly complain that inflation and unemployment have left the economy in a shambles despite record oil revenues.There is a major different between Larijani and Ahmadinejad in their views toward Iranian foreign policy.Ahmadinejad has taken a provocative stance in the now-suspended negotiations over Iran's nuclear program,but Larijani believes Iran's interests are better served with a constructive dialogue aimed at building Western confidence that Iran's uranium-enrichment activities will not be diverted into the construction of nuclear weapons.Larijani has never said that he would want to take part in the upcoming election though,and some Iranian insiders believethat Larijani will ultimately prefer to remain as parliament speaker rather thanrisk losing to Ahmadinejad in the '09 race.

Back in 2005,Larijani finished near the bottom in the 2005 multi-candidate election that brought Ahmadinejad to power.Nevertheless,his comeback provesthere is deep discontent within conservative circles over Ahmadinejad'sleadership,and raises the likelihood that the incumbent will be strongly challenged by another leading conservative presidential candidate.Among thosecontenders may be the popular mayor of Tehran,Mohammed-Baqer Qalibaf,who hascriticized Ahmadinejad's belligerent foreign policy statements and mishandlingof the Iranian economy.Larijani's political comback certainly had the blessingof Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei — who wields executive power in Iranand he may be prepared to sanction challenges to Ahmadinejad's reelection next year,according to analyst.But whatever it is,whether Larijani will actually takepart in the upcoming election,he is likely to use his high-profile post as parliamentary speaker to question Ahmadinejad's policies and offer alternativesand with the backing of Khamenei,it could spell disaster for Ahmadinejad.

It was an interesting article to read for me because sometime ago,I wouldnt have thought that Ahmadinejad is going to have any problem heading into the upcoming election but with Larijani's comeback and his huge lost of support,I think he could be well be out of office come 2009.I don't know if Ahmadinejad has actually done a great job since becoming a President.I know for a fact that he is still quite popular with the majority of the people,nevermind the people in the government but the Iranian economy is not doing that well.I also think that the current government has not been very open about their nuclear programmes which is not helpful if they want to improve their relations with the West or America in particular.I think its about time they put aside their differences and come together and discuss openly about their nuclear plans.If they have nothing to hide,then I don't see why they are refusing to talk.It will only increase the suspicion from the West that Iran do have other motives in developing their nuclear plans.

I dont know which side is to blame here because both Iran and America are accusing each other of not being open to the possibility of talking to each other.In fact yesterday,Iran's foreign minister said that the United States should conduct a "serious review" of its foreign policy after the presidential election,a signal that Iran is leaving open the possibility of improved relations with Washington.A WhiteHouse spokesman said in reply that the "Iranian government is pursuing policies that are inimical to the interests of the Iranian people" and isolating the country from the international community by the standoff over its nuclear program. U.S. Democratic presidential candidate,Barack Obama has said that he has expressed a willingness to open new channels with Iran - a position that has drawn fire from Republican John McCain and Obama's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.Therefore,it would be interesting to see what will happen if Obama wins the election and Ahmadinejad losing the election next year.

I hope if that happens,it will open to a new chapter between the relationship of both country.I think Ahmadinejad will lose the election because if he stays,I doubt that will be willing to talk to the West despite what the Iranian foreign minister has said.But both country need to work together if they are to achieve success and stop finding reasons to blame each other whoever the president may be.

This article was taken from TIME.