Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has announced on Wednesday that he is going to leave office in September, rather than run in his Kadima Party's leadership election, which was called in response to a string of corruption investigations involving the prime minister. It has undoubtedly dealt a serious setback to delicate peace negotiations with both the Palestinians and Syria. The chances are good the next Israeli leader will take a hard line toward the country's Arab neighbors. But if Olmert is able to lock in some progress in the time he has left, his successor might have a hard time reversing it.
It's also possible that Olmert won't be replaced by a hawk, even though current polls show former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes most peace concessions, to be Israel's most popular politician. The intricacies of Israel's parliamentary politics could make it possible for Olmert — who faces a potential indictment on charges that he took bribes from an elderly American Jewish businessman — to hold on to office for months, possibly well into 2009. In his speech, Olmert said that he will fight for peace "as long as I remain in my post" and that "we are closer than ever to concrete understandings" with both the Palestinians and the Syrians. His decision to resign comes amid momentous but unfinished projects, each of whose outcomes will deeply affect the course of Mideast politics: a U.S.-sponsored effort to forge peace between Israel and the moderate Palestinian leadership in charge of the West Bank, a partially implemented truce agreement between Olmert's government and the Hamas militants ruling the Gaza Strip, and indirect, Turkish-mediated talks with Syria.
Palestinian officials are expressing hope the Israeli political turmoil will not torpedo their fragile talks. Ahmed Qureia, the chief Palestinian negotiator, was in Washington for consultations at the White House and State Department when Olmert made his announcement. Qureia said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice remains undeterred in her commitment to a peace deal. Still, the Israeli political upheaval — combined with a weak and divided Palestinian leadership — does not bode well for Mideast peace. Even before Olmert's latest surprise, the sides had been backing away from their stated goal of signing a peace accord by year's end. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said during a visit to Tunisia on Thursday that the two sides had not agreed on any of the core issues that separate them, such as the borders of a future Palestinian state and the fate of Jerusalem. Despite Qureia's guarded optimism, other Palestinian officials expressed doubt about being able to close a deal with Olmert now that he is a lame duck. Israel's other main peace initiative — indirect talks with Syria designed to end their decades-old conflict — could also be at risk. A Syrian Foreign Ministry official confided that the political developments in Israel could "hinder" the negotiations. It's also possible Olmert's departure could jolt Israel's Arab neighbors toward peace — because of fears of a hawkish successor like Netanyahu.
One area where Olmert's departure is not likely to have a major impact is Israel's relationship with its main enemy, Iran. Despite some speculation he might try to prop up his tarnished legacy with a daring strike on Iran's nuclear program, that kind of risky move would probably require more political support than the prime minister has. When it comes to Iran, any Israeli leader will probably have more or less the same policy. [End of report]
Honestly, I didnt expect to see Olmert to step down. He have said before that he will step down if he is found guilty of the corruption charges, which he denies, but he has not been convicted of any charges yet, so by stepping down, I think it raise some questions about whether he has anything to do with the corruption charges or not. There are some people who wanted to see him stepping down earlier. Olmert's handling of the botched Lebanon war in the summer of 2006 plunged his approval ratings into the single digits, and he never really recovered the confidence of the Israeli people. Nevertheless, he still managed to hang in. If you ask me, I think he has not done a good job as the Prime Minister until recent. He has called time on his tenure at a moment when he is engaged in talks with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas over the terms of a future peace agreement, as well as indirect negotiations with Abbas' rivals in the Hamas movement that controls Gaza and also with Syria. He has also been lobbying international support particularly the U.S. for tough action to deter Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons. So what will happen later when Olmert is no longer in power?
I think there is not much that will change once he is gone. Yes, there are talks about peace with the Palestinians, but the talks were confined only to Abbas' Fatah organization, which is not actually at war with Israel, and were expressly designed to avoid Hamas, which remains engaged in confronting Israel. Both the U.S. and Israel has label Hamas as a terrorist organisation so I highly doubt that there will be major changes once Olmert is gone because Hamas should get involved as well with the discussions if they want to achieve any chance of success because they also play an important role in the peace process whether the Americans and the Israelis like it or not. But again, Hamas has to be willing to negotiate as well or there will never be any peace in the region. Many in the region saw the Olmert-Abbas talks as more reflective of a U.S.-Israeli effort to isolate more militant elements that might be allied with Syria and Iran than of any serious intent to expeditiously resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The irony, of course, is that those elements the U.S. and Israel had hoped to isolate have done a lot better over the past couple of years than have politicians like Abbas who enjoy U.S. favor. That is another problem that the new Prime Minister will have to face later.
There have been some progress over the Olmert era, but it has been very slow. If you remember a few months ago, the Israelis had to deal with Hamas to halt Palestinian rocket fire out of Gaza and recovered a kidnapped Israeli soldier by negotiating a cease-fire via Egypt. Those pragmatic imperatives will remain even after Olmert has left the scene, as will the ones that prompted Israel to begin negotiating with Syria via Turkey, in the hope that Damascus can be detached from Iran, something officials close to the Syrian leadership have told it will not happen. A Syrian Foreign Ministry official even confided that the political developments in Israel could "hinder" the negotiations making it even more complicated now than it was before. So who is the favourite candidates to replace him? There's a lot actually like what have been mentioned on the report. Israel Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is a strong favourite for the post as well as the Transportation Minister and former army chief Shaul Mofaz. The polls are showing though that former Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes most peace concessions and has called for early elections, as the most popular choice for the post. You might want to know that both Mofaz and Netanyahu have advocated military actions against Iran nuclear programme. Netanyahu has also said that he had no intention of reaching any deal with Kadima regardless of its new leader.
Whatever his personal failings as a leader, Olmert's tenure was a reflection of a long-term stalemate in Israeli politics, in which no party is capable of governing without the support of a group of others who don't share its perspectives and intentions. When Olmert came into power 2 years ago, it doesnt seem like there was going to be any chance of peace in the region but things have changed slightly for the better now in my opinion. Im hopeful that an agreement could be reach before Olmert or President Bush steps down but I am pesismistic that it will happen. I believe strongly though that there will be hope that there will be peace in the region whoever the new leaders will be. Some progress have been made by the current regimes, so lets take that progress further.
Honestly, I didnt expect to see Olmert to step down. He have said before that he will step down if he is found guilty of the corruption charges, which he denies, but he has not been convicted of any charges yet, so by stepping down, I think it raise some questions about whether he has anything to do with the corruption charges or not. There are some people who wanted to see him stepping down earlier. Olmert's handling of the botched Lebanon war in the summer of 2006 plunged his approval ratings into the single digits, and he never really recovered the confidence of the Israeli people. Nevertheless, he still managed to hang in. If you ask me, I think he has not done a good job as the Prime Minister until recent. He has called time on his tenure at a moment when he is engaged in talks with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas over the terms of a future peace agreement, as well as indirect negotiations with Abbas' rivals in the Hamas movement that controls Gaza and also with Syria. He has also been lobbying international support particularly the U.S. for tough action to deter Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons. So what will happen later when Olmert is no longer in power?
I think there is not much that will change once he is gone. Yes, there are talks about peace with the Palestinians, but the talks were confined only to Abbas' Fatah organization, which is not actually at war with Israel, and were expressly designed to avoid Hamas, which remains engaged in confronting Israel. Both the U.S. and Israel has label Hamas as a terrorist organisation so I highly doubt that there will be major changes once Olmert is gone because Hamas should get involved as well with the discussions if they want to achieve any chance of success because they also play an important role in the peace process whether the Americans and the Israelis like it or not. But again, Hamas has to be willing to negotiate as well or there will never be any peace in the region. Many in the region saw the Olmert-Abbas talks as more reflective of a U.S.-Israeli effort to isolate more militant elements that might be allied with Syria and Iran than of any serious intent to expeditiously resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The irony, of course, is that those elements the U.S. and Israel had hoped to isolate have done a lot better over the past couple of years than have politicians like Abbas who enjoy U.S. favor. That is another problem that the new Prime Minister will have to face later.
There have been some progress over the Olmert era, but it has been very slow. If you remember a few months ago, the Israelis had to deal with Hamas to halt Palestinian rocket fire out of Gaza and recovered a kidnapped Israeli soldier by negotiating a cease-fire via Egypt. Those pragmatic imperatives will remain even after Olmert has left the scene, as will the ones that prompted Israel to begin negotiating with Syria via Turkey, in the hope that Damascus can be detached from Iran, something officials close to the Syrian leadership have told it will not happen. A Syrian Foreign Ministry official even confided that the political developments in Israel could "hinder" the negotiations making it even more complicated now than it was before. So who is the favourite candidates to replace him? There's a lot actually like what have been mentioned on the report. Israel Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is a strong favourite for the post as well as the Transportation Minister and former army chief Shaul Mofaz. The polls are showing though that former Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes most peace concessions and has called for early elections, as the most popular choice for the post. You might want to know that both Mofaz and Netanyahu have advocated military actions against Iran nuclear programme. Netanyahu has also said that he had no intention of reaching any deal with Kadima regardless of its new leader.
Whatever his personal failings as a leader, Olmert's tenure was a reflection of a long-term stalemate in Israeli politics, in which no party is capable of governing without the support of a group of others who don't share its perspectives and intentions. When Olmert came into power 2 years ago, it doesnt seem like there was going to be any chance of peace in the region but things have changed slightly for the better now in my opinion. Im hopeful that an agreement could be reach before Olmert or President Bush steps down but I am pesismistic that it will happen. I believe strongly though that there will be hope that there will be peace in the region whoever the new leaders will be. Some progress have been made by the current regimes, so lets take that progress further.
*The report was taken from Associated Press.
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